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CISM study material · question 195 of 1000

How does SP 800-30 distinguish the likelihood of impact from the magnitude of impact?

  1. Likelihood of impact asks whether harm follows at all, regardless of how large that harm would be
  2. The two are the same measure expressed on different scales, one verbal and one numeric, and may be used interchangeably
  3. Likelihood of impact is the harm itself expressed as a probability distribution over the possible loss values
  4. Likelihood of impact applies only to adversarial threats, since an accidental event's harm follows automatically once it occurs
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Answer: A. Likelihood of impact asks whether harm follows at all, regardless of how large that harm would be

SP 800-30 splits the two: one asks how probable it is that harm follows at all from the event, the other how much harm. Size is deliberately set aside in the first question.

Source: NIST SP 800-30 Rev. 1 (NIST) — Sec. 2.3.1 Risk Models — Likelihood

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