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CISM study material · question 207 of 1000

A quantitative risk model produces precise figures, but several of its inputs were expert guesses recorded as point values. What does SP 800-30 say about this?

  1. Quantitative models must never use expert judgement
  2. The rigour of quantification is significantly lessened when subjective determinations are buried inside the numbers
  3. The model remains rigorous because the outputs are numeric
  4. Subjective inputs are acceptable provided the expert is senior enough, because seniority is what the model relies on for calibration
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Answer: B. The rigour of quantification is significantly lessened when subjective determinations are buried inside the numbers

SP 800-30 warns that the rigour of quantification is significantly lessened when subjective determinations are buried within quantitative assessments, or when significant uncertainty surrounds the determination of values.

Source: NIST SP 800-30 Rev. 1 (NIST) — Sec. 2.3.2 Assessment Approaches

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