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CISM study material · question 305 of 1000

Which description matches Monte Carlo simulation as IR 8286 defines it?

  1. Graphing the events that could follow an initiating event
  2. Drawing random sample values from a set of inputs, calculating results, and repeating iteratively to build a distribution
  3. Combining a prior distribution with newly collected data to infer the probability of future outcomes as fresh evidence keeps accumulating
  4. Plotting historical loss values against time to find a trend
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Answer: B. Drawing random sample values from a set of inputs, calculating results, and repeating iteratively to build a distribution

IR 8286's Monte Carlo model samples input values at random, computes an outcome, and runs that loop again and again until a distribution of results emerges.

Source: NIST IR 8286 (NIST) — Sec. 3.3.2 Techniques for Estimating Likelihood and Impact

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